Carry's record: Ethereum, 15 min
Every confirmed call on Kalshi's 15-minute Ethereum market, logged as it happened and checked against Kalshi's result.
Crypto, 15-minute markets: Bitcoin | Ethereum | Solana | XRP · All markets
Every minute our server reads Ethereum's price, applies the same rule Carry uses on the chart for each tier, and writes each CONFIRMED call to a log the moment its minute closes. After the 15-minute window ends, it checks Kalshi's own published result. Nothing is added or removed afterwards. This page is built from that log.
Results by tier
| Tier | Calls | Scored | Right | Right % | Worst case | Past test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very early 92% bar, calls until 9 left | 1 | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100.0% | 20.7% | 96.9% |
| Early 88% bar, calls until 6 left | 9 | 9 | 9 of 9 | 100.0% | 70.1% | 91.7% |
| Standard 90% bar, calls until 6 left | 7 | 7 | 7 of 7 | 100.0% | 64.6% | 93.2% |
| Balanced 94% bar, calls until 7 left | 2 | 2 | 2 of 2 | 100.0% | 34.2% | 96.8% |
| Solid 94% bar, calls until 4 left | 8 | 8 | 8 of 8 | 100.0% | 67.6% | 96.3% |
| Locked 98% bar, calls until 4 left | 2 | 2 | 2 of 2 | 100.0% | 34.2% | 98.5% |
"Worst case" is the lowest the true right rate plausibly is given how many calls there have been. "Past test" is how the tier did on earlier history, scored out of sample (each half tested on a table built from the other half). The record here is new data the tiers were not chosen on.
Latest calls
| Window (UTC) | Tier | Side | Held | Min left | Price to beat | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 21:00 | Solid | ABOVE | 95% | 6 | 2,261.22 | right |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 | Standard | ABOVE | 95% | 6 | 2,261.22 | right |
| 2026-11-01 21:00 | Early | ABOVE | 95% | 6 | 2,261.22 | right |
| 2026-11-01 20:45 | Early | ABOVE | 88% | 6 | 2,260.12 | right |
| 2026-11-01 20:30 | Locked | ABOVE | 99% | 7 | 2,255.64 | right |
| 2026-11-01 20:30 | Solid | ABOVE | 95% | 8 | 2,255.64 | right |
| 2026-11-01 20:30 | Balanced | ABOVE | 95% | 8 | 2,255.64 | right |
| 2026-11-01 20:30 | Standard | ABOVE | 95% | 8 | 2,255.64 | right |
| 2026-11-01 20:30 | Early | ABOVE | 89% | 11 | 2,255.64 | right |
| 2026-11-01 20:15 | Locked | BELOW | 98% | 5 | 2,255.86 | right |
| 2026-11-01 20:15 | Solid | BELOW | 96% | 8 | 2,255.86 | right |
| 2026-11-01 20:15 | Balanced | BELOW | 96% | 8 | 2,255.86 | right |
| 2026-11-01 20:15 | Standard | BELOW | 96% | 8 | 2,255.86 | right |
| 2026-11-01 20:15 | Early | BELOW | 88% | 10 | 2,255.86 | right |
| 2026-11-01 19:30 | Solid | BELOW | 96% | 4 | 2,258.32 | right |
| 2026-11-01 19:30 | Early | BELOW | 89% | 7 | 2,258.32 | right |
| 2026-11-01 19:15 | Solid | ABOVE | 95% | 6 | 2,254.68 | right |
| 2026-11-01 19:15 | Standard | ABOVE | 95% | 6 | 2,254.68 | right |
| 2026-11-01 19:15 | Early | ABOVE | 89% | 7 | 2,254.68 | right |
| 2026-11-01 19:00 | Solid | BELOW | 96% | 5 | 2,260.94 | right |
| 2026-11-01 18:45 | Solid | BELOW | 95% | 5 | 2,263.57 | right |
| 2026-11-01 18:45 | Standard | BELOW | 92% | 9 | 2,263.57 | right |
| 2026-11-01 18:45 | Early | BELOW | 92% | 9 | 2,263.57 | right |
| 2026-11-01 18:45 | Very early | BELOW | 92% | 9 | 2,263.57 | right |
| 2026-11-01 18:30 | Standard | ABOVE | 90% | 7 | 2,262.30 | right |
| 2026-11-01 18:30 | Early | ABOVE | 89% | 8 | 2,262.30 | right |
| 2026-11-01 17:45 | Solid | BELOW | 95% | 4 | 2,265.51 | right |
| 2026-11-01 17:45 | Standard | BELOW | 92% | 6 | 2,265.51 | right |
| 2026-11-01 17:45 | Early | BELOW | 92% | 6 | 2,265.51 | right |
How to read this honestly
- A call is logged at the close of the minute it fires, using Coinbase's one-minute candles, the same data the hold table was measured on. The live chart can show CONFIRMED a few seconds earlier inside a minute, so the record is close to, but not identical to, what you see on screen.
- Only calls made while the server was watching are counted. If the server restarts or sleeps, those windows are skipped and never filled in later. The windows-watched figure above shows the coverage.
- Being right is not the same as being paid. By the time a call is clear, the market has often priced it in. Check the price before you act on any call.
- Past results do not promise future results. Carry confirms a side that has locked in. It does not predict.