The Carry playbook
Fewer trades, written rules, and a log you actually read.
Carry tells you how often a call like this has held. It cannot tell you how much to risk or when to stop. This page covers that part: what to decide before the first window, how to read each panel state, and the habits that keep a bad day small.
1. Before the first window
Write your rules down while you are calm.
Rules made in the middle of a trade bend. Tick these off before you start, and keep the numbers where you can see them.
These boxes reset when you reload. They are a prompt, not a record. Your record is the profit log.
2. Reading the panel
Four states, four plain instructions.
The panel on the chart is always in one of these. The call comes only from how often similar spots held, never from how the chart looks.
Nothing to do yet.
Too early, or price is sitting on the strike. There is not enough margin for a reliable read. Waiting costs you nothing. Check back next minute.
A heads-up, not a signal.
A move is forming but it has not proven itself. Calls at this stage finish the other way noticeably more often than confirmed ones. Wait, or keep size small.
The call Carry stands behind.
Calls like this finished the same way at the measured rate shown on the panel. That rate is not 100%, so size for the misses.
The call has broken.
Price is back across the strike. If you are in a trade, decide your exit now, not at the end of the window.
3. The reading aids
They show you what could go wrong. They do not change the call.
Tested support and resistance
Levels price has turned at three or more times. If price is pressed against one, a CONFIRMED call on the wrong side of it deserves a smaller size.
Break arrows
A tested level that price closes through. A break that holds is stronger than one that snaps back, and the tile tells you which one just happened.
Failed probes
Long wicks past the strike that got pushed back this window. Several in a row show a side price will not hold.
Pace
How fast price has moved lately, and whether that pace would reach the strike before the window ends. A call with room to spare but a fast move toward the strike is worth watching.
Trend
Whether the 1, 5 and 15 minute averages agree. Agreement means price has a direction. Mixed means chop, a good time to skip.
The pattern tile
Shapes like a double top are named for reference only. They were tested and were not reliable, so they never change a call and you should not trade on them alone.
4. Habits that protect your account
The best trade is often the one you wait for.
One good trade is worth more than five unsure ones.
A building call finishes the other way more often than a confirmed one, and every trade you take pays the spread. Five trades you were not sure about give you five chances to lose and five fees to cover. Waiting for the panel to say CONFIRMED means fewer trades, fewer misses and a smaller bill.
Set a daily limit before you start
Pick the number of trades you will take today, and stop when you reach it. Two or three is plenty for most people.
Set a stop after losses
Decide how many losses end your session, for example two in a row. Walk away when you hit it, so a bad run stays small.
Treat WAIT as an answer
Most of the time the panel will tell you to wait. That is Carry working. Skipping a window costs you nothing.
Do not chase after a miss
A reversal is a normal result. The next window opens soon. Wait for a fresh call instead of trying to win it back.
Size by call type
Use a smaller size on building calls than on confirmed ones, and a size where one miss does not hurt.
Log every trade, even the ones you regret
The profit log shows how your confirmed calls compare with your building calls, and how your results change on days when you trade more. Let the numbers coach you.
5. After the session
Five minutes of review beats an hour of regret.
Log anything you missed
Every trade, with its side and whether it was a confirmed or building call. Leave nothing out, especially the ones you regret.
Check the rules, not the result
Did you stay under your trade limit and your stop? A winning day that broke your rules is a warning. A losing day that followed them is fine.
Compare confirmed with building
The profit log splits your results by call type. If building calls are costing you, the fix is to skip them.
Look at the week, not the day
One day tells you very little. The weekly total and your win rate on confirmed calls tell you whether the plan is working.
Plain about the limits
A good call still loses sometimes. Carry tells you how often.
It does not predict
It reports how often similar spots held. A call at 90% still finishes the other way about 1 time in 10.
It does not promise a profit
What you earn depends on the price you pay. A right call at a very high price pays little.
It does not trade for you
Carry shows you the chart and the call. You decide the size, the entry and the exit, so start small and keep a log.