A live chart for 15-minute Bitcoin contracts
Know which side of the strike you're on, and how often that has held.
Carry Live watches Bitcoin on a live chart, marks the strike, and shows one plain answer, ABOVE or BELOW, with the share of past windows that finished the same way. It runs in your browser, on your phone or your desk.
The contract lasts 15 minutes, and the chart moves one minute at a time so the call updates as the window plays out. Carry never places trades and never connects to your Kalshi account.
Coinbase 1-minute data over 90 days. Hold rate means the share of past calls that finished on the same side of the strike.
How Carry decides
Three things on the panel tell you whether to trust a call.
The line you win or lose on
Kalshi sets it from the minute before the window opens. Carry estimates it from four exchanges averaged together, and you can type the exact number when you have it.
How far past the line, for the time left
Distance from the strike measured against how far price normally moves in the minutes remaining. Low, building, good or strong.
How often that spot has finished the same way
Every margin and minute has a measured hold rate. Carry shows CONFIRMED only when past calls like this one held at least 90% of the time.
Calls get safer as price pulls away from the strike.
- Under 0.8x of margin, more than 1 call in 5 finished on the other side.
- From 1.2x, calls held 90% or better.
- Waiting costs price. Carry shows you where the line sits so you can choose.
Six minutes into the window. Scored against Kalshi's strikes and results.
Plain about the limits
A good call still loses sometimes. Carry tells you how often.
It does not predict
It reports how often similar spots held. A call at 90% still finishes the other way about 1 time in 10.
It does not promise a profit
What you earn depends on the price you pay. A right call at a very high price pays little.
It does not trade for you
Carry shows you the chart and the call. You decide the size, the entry and the exit, so start small and keep a log.
Habits that protect your account
The best trade is often the one you wait for.
One good trade is worth more than five unsure ones.
A building call finishes the other way more often than a confirmed one, and every trade you take pays the spread. Five trades you were not sure about give you five chances to lose and five fees to cover. Waiting for the panel to say CONFIRMED means fewer trades, fewer misses and a smaller bill.
Set a daily limit before you start
Pick the number of trades you will take today, and stop when you reach it. Two or three is plenty for most people.
Set a stop after losses
Decide how many losses end your session, for example two in a row. Walk away when you hit it, so a bad run stays small.
Treat WAIT as an answer
Most of the time the panel will tell you to wait. That is Carry working. Skipping a window costs you nothing.
Do not chase after a miss
A reversal is a normal result. The next window opens soon. Wait for a fresh call instead of trying to win it back.
Size by call type
Use a smaller size on building calls than on confirmed ones, and a size where one miss does not hurt.
Log every trade, even the ones you regret
The log below shows how your confirmed calls compare with your building calls, and how your results change on days when you trade more. Let the numbers coach you.
Profit log
Log every trade. See the day, the week and the month.
Add a win or a loss in a few taps. The calendar totals each day and each week, and shows how your confirmed calls compare with the building ones.
Cumulative profit this month
Confirmed calls against building calls
Get Carry
One chart, one plain answer.
Sign in, open the chart and read the panel. There is nothing to install and nothing to set up.
per month, cancel any time
- Carry Live chart in any browser, with 1m, 5m, 15m and 1h views and live prices from four exchanges
- Strike read from Kalshi every 15 minutes, with margin lines drawn for you
- Reading aids on the chart: tested support and resistance, break arrows, trend, failed probes, pace and a scorecard of Carry's own calls
- Profit calendar to log every trade, with weekly and monthly totals
- Your choice of black, white or midnight chart, color-blind friendly candles and alerts
- Updates as the hold table is re-measured, included
Already a member? Sign in. Payment is handled by Stripe.
Questions
Before you buy
Do I need TradingView or any other software?
No. Carry Live is its own chart. Sign in with your browser on a computer, tablet or phone and it works. Prices stream straight from Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken and Gemini.
Why is a 15-minute contract shown on a 1-minute chart?
The contract lasts 15 minutes, but the call is measured one minute at a time: how far price is past the strike, in typical moves, with this many minutes left. The 1-minute candles show you that movement as it happens.
Does Carry place trades or read my account?
No. It shows price and a call. It never places an order and never connects to Kalshi or your broker.
Does it read Kalshi prices?
No. If you want a price check, you can type the Kalshi ask into the settings. Leave it at zero to ignore it.
Can a CONFIRMED call be wrong?
Yes. Confirmed means past calls like it held at least 90% of the time, so about 1 in 10 finished the other way. Size your trades so one miss does not hurt.
Where do the numbers come from?
Ninety days of minute-by-minute Bitcoin history, 8,826 windows in all, with 6,367 of them scored against Kalshi's own strikes and results. The table was then checked on windows it had not seen.
How do I cancel?
Sign in, open Billing and cancel. You keep access until the end of the period you paid for.
Is this financial advice?
No. Carry is a chart tool. Trading involves risk, and past results do not guarantee future results. Use money you can afford to lose.