Help

Carry is a live Bitcoin chart built for Kalshi's 15-minute up or down contracts. It shows the price to beat for the current window, where Bitcoin is now, and how often windows that looked like this one finished on the same side in the past.

It tells you when a side has locked in. It does not predict where price will go next.

Kalshi sets a number at the start of every 15-minute window (the average Bitcoin price over the minute before it opens). When the window ends, Bitcoin has finished either above that number or below it. On the chart it is the yellow line. Kalshi calls it the strike or the price to beat.

Early in a window price can still move a long way, so any lead is easy to lose. Carry waits until price has stayed on one side of the line for 3 minutes in a row, then checks how far past the line it is compared with a normal move for the time left.

It means two things are true: price has stayed on one side for 3 minutes, and calls that looked like this in the past finished the same way at least as often as the bar you chose (90% on Standard). It is a measured record. Some confirmed calls still lose.

Already decided

Price is very far past the line for the time left. The call is almost certainly right, but the move has already happened, so there is usually little left to gain. Check the market's own price before you act on it.

Clear lead

Price is well past the line. Calls like this have usually held.

Building

Price is moving past the line but has not proved it yet. Wait and watch.

Too close

Price is within a normal move of the line. It could finish either way.

The shaded band on the chart between the price to beat and today's price. Its label is the number of dollars price would have to travel to finish on the other side. A small number means the call is fragile. A large number means a lot would have to happen to change it.

It shows where you are in the 15-minute window. Building: too early for Carry to confirm anything. Calls open: Carry can confirm a side. Too late: not enough time left for a new call. The black marker is the clock.

After a CONFIRMED call, the panel warns you if the lead shrinks or price crosses back over the line. It is a warning only. It does not change the call or place anything.

They set how strict Carry is before it says CONFIRMED and how late in the window it may speak. Stricter tiers are right more often but make fewer calls and tend to speak later. These figures come from 68 days of past windows, scored against Kalshi's own strikes and results.

"Worst case" is the lowest the true right rate plausibly is, given how many calls there were. Past results are not a promise. Solid and Locked speak late, so there is often little time left in the window.

No. We tested many ways to call direction before it happens (candle patterns, volume, order flow, futures, other coins) and none beat what the distance to the line and the clock already tell you. Carry confirms a side that has locked in.

We cannot say. Being right is not the same as being paid. By the time a call is clear, the market has often priced it in. Trading involves risk, including the loss of everything you put in. Carry is a chart tool, not financial advice.

No. Carry is independent. It reads public exchange prices and Kalshi's public strike and result data. It does not trade for you and never places an order.

iPhone or iPad: open Carry in Safari, tap the Share button, then Add to Home Screen.

Android: open Carry in Chrome, tap the menu, then Install app or Add to Home screen.

It opens full screen like an app. It still needs an internet connection for live prices.